tv Closing Bell CNBC August 23, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
more or less than three years ago. 64% said you're not making more, you're making less or the same. not good. >> not good at all, quite shocking. >> "closing bell" is next. hi, everybody, good afternoon, we enter the final stretch, welcome to "closing bell." pretty good sell off on wall street today. the less investors think there will be more fed stimulus, the lower stocks go. a quick shift from yesterday's positive reaction to the latest fed minutes. you saw steve bullard on here steling steve looezman the numbers are likely to be steal. we'll have more on that plus the market reaction in a moment. first, here is how we stand right now. the dow, all of the major
averages near the lows of the session today. last i saw we were down about 110 or 111. the do you is down, and the s&p down three quarters of a percent at 1303. so let's get back to the comments of james bullard, here is what he told steve leisman. >> if we were to resume, 2% growth in the second half of the year. unemployment ticks down, that's not a great outcome, but to me that's a good enough outcome to keep us on hold. >> is he throwing cold water on the stimulus comes sometime here from the fed? >> he is banking on a drop in unemployment and 2% growth or better by the end of the year. we have ron mullencamp, bether
bookvar, and rick santelli. ron, let me get your take, does this market and economy news stimulus from the fed? >> no, the problem we have is not a money problem, it's a fiscal problem. the fed shot nearly all of the bullets it has for them to use another. the markets would like the fed to do it because it gives a brief jump for the market. the last two bullets did nothing for the company. >> peter, you have been blogging about this all day, it's funny how the sentiment can change. >> we're seeing a continued dependency that the market has on the fed. i think it's pretty pathetic that the fed is contemplating doing more to no avail.
i think the fed needs to look in the mirror and see what they have done already and see that it's not working and it's counter productive. >> do you agree with that dan, has it been not working? >> i think it depends on what you mean by not working. ron saying it did nothing is false. if you look at qe 2, the tale end of, was a big quarter. i personally don't think that qe 3 is something that should be done right now. but if you're the federal reserve, they don't look from purely a stock market standpoint, they look at the broad market. >> rick san ttelli, isn't it
ironic that the job numbers came in higher and we have less anticipation of qe 3? >> it's hard to handicap and the bond king is 80-20, but around here the discussions morphed. many traders that have been selling into this weakness and equities think whether they do it or not is tipped over to whether they do it or not will not matter. they three with guest one and two. but if they do do it it might have more risk. what happens if the equities get spongy in a quick time frame after qe 3. it's like when soros challenged the bank of england and won. >> the expectations, though right? ron, the market is expecting further stimulus. we have been seeing good upside. even in the face of weak
economic data and issues in the u.s., we don't get the stimulus from the fed, are we in for a good sell off? >> do you want the fed to be worried about what the market does on a daily, weekly, monthly, or quarterly basis? the problems are multiyear. the better part of things. to argue that after qe 2, we had one decent quarter out of the last four years is crazy. >> hang on -- >> much of what happens in economics is trading the current for the future. and in washington, everything is focused on the next three weeks or three months -- >> isn't that the reality of it ron? if the market is expecting something and we don't get it in september, do we have a sizable sell off in stocks? >> i hope so. >> you're looking for value at some point. >> dan greenhouse, defend yourself. >> i agree, i didn't say there
was only one quarter, i saw the quarter that coincided was person consumption. the following quarter saw overall gdp growth come in flat. i don't necessarily agree with this. i however find tremendous fault that the central reserve should not pay attention to the stock market on a quarterly or annual basis. it's one of the most important leading things we have. i don't think ben bernanke should look at it on a quarter by quarter basis. >> would it hurt anything? there are plenty of people -- >> yes, it's just a few pennies from the highest level from april. i want ben bernanke to walk into a walmart and ask that person
how more inflation will be better. the geopolitical risks, commodity prices going higher, and i guarantee wages will not go up. ben bernanke will hurt the standard of living, and it will be detrimental to economic growth. >> i love peter and i think he's right, people buy things beside commodities. there are other things that go into an inflation basket than that. >> ron, how do you allocate capital in the face of all of this? >> what's worked lately -- people are looking for yield. there is none available in the bond market. good companies, strong balance sheets, and decent dividends.
so, we tell our clients we want balance sheets better than the treasury but that's a lower bar. >> good conversation. >> see you soon. >> heading toward the close. anything can happen here. we're watching this market come off the lows, but not by much. >> a lot for store sistfor you this thursday edition of "closing bell." >> fiscal cliff or not, mark fabre says we're going into a recession. and paying up, more and more economists are saying americans are not being taxed enough. are higher taxes on the way regardless of who is elected president? and the grass is always greener. as the growing movement to legalize marijuana turned a new leaf?
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welcome back, we're in the final stretch here for the day of trading. the quick market stat check looks like this, a triple digit loss. hopes time for swift federal action. and the company cutting it's outlooks for the year. right now the do you industrial just shy of the lows of the day. the dow now on course for the first four day losing streak since august 2nd. it's spiking today above 16 for the first time in weeks. you can see here, the index is
not settled above 20 in about a month, bill. volatility has been lacking here given the low volume numbers, and you're seeing a fair amount of economically sensitive names, aluminum, commodities, and the banks are to the downside as well. >> and the safe havens are seeing a buying day. a lot of recession talk has been picking up steam lately. no action on the fiscal cliff would ensure that we see a recession next year, but our next against hat been more pessimistic for awhile. he says a recession is a 100% sure thing no matter what happens. >> it's amazing. no wonder he calls it the doom and gloom report. mark, thanks for joining us, it's not a matter of if but when for a recession. why is that? >> i think if you look at the
world, we have essentially europe, the u.s., china, and then emerging economies that depends heavily on china, europe is already in a recession. and germany's economy is still going very slightly but going to recession soon. the other economies are in recession. the u.s. decelerated and i don't see much growth in the u.s. in the next six to nine or 12 months. real gdp would be negative. >> the federal reserve should do more quantitative easing and put more liquidity in the market. they feel there is a good chance they'll do it. what is your feeling on if the
fed should provide more liquidity to this economy? >> i think if you look at the options of liquidity and the interventions by the fed, and also by the treasury with fiscal measures over the last 15 years. it has already hurt the u.s. economy. i think that the markets, the asset markets -- for further easing already. i mean, a huge balance sheet to boost -- >> what's your take on the earnings picture then, mark. the corporate fions -- valuatio
are low, and you want to believe investing in the economy will hold up. what's your take on the corporate sector. >> they have recoved remarkably things that earnings in 2009, and really high earnings, but they are increasing number of instances where earnings are disappointing, and we have to see very clearly where in the u.s., the corporate sector has done very well. in other areas of the world it's done less well. i think that corporate profits, anything, will disappoint over the next 12 to 18 months. even if it disappointed modestly doesn't mean the market will collapse. >> what's your take on the fiscal cliff, mark, and the pomt
that if the congress doesn't fix it before the end of the year -- some feel that the end of the tax cuts and the end of the spending programs to bring our deficits down, it's a lot of pain at the same time, where do you feel that will play out? >> the way i feel it's going to play out is basically it doesn't matter if the republicans win the election or mr. obama. the fiscal deficit will stay around $1.3 trillion, and my view will be that it will go up. either way, the fiscal deficit as publiced by the media, will not have a true fiscal deficit, because to have a true fiscal deficit, you will have unfunded liabilities. if you report that it would be
in the order of over $4 trillion annually. >> all right, we'll leave it there, good to have you on the program. >> we look forward to the day hoe can change the name of his newsletter to "happy days are here again." >> up next, we're talking turkey, not the kind you eat, the country. the market is red hot and there may be an easy way to catch in. >> then amazon is in a prime pickle. will they have to get rid of that yearly deal, and will that lead to a netflix-like fall out?
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welcome back, bob pi san any is watching all of the selling from the floor of the nyse. >> the immediate reason we're down at the prehope, mr. bullard came on our air and said it's not a fore gone conclusion that qe 3 is coming, that the data they released it stale. we topped out several days ago. put up the major sectors today, and you sigh since august 2nd, the lip has been in energy, materialing, financials, technology. that group has gone nowhere. those four or five sectors have
gone nowhere and there's been nothing to replace it. remember prior to the august second meeting, it was all in those dividend paying stocks. but utilities and pharmaceutical stocks, that are big dividend payers have gone straight down. that's a very unusual drop for them. so there's no leadership here. none from the dividend group or big international names. and transports, maria, never moved up towards highs. there's a three month chart of the transports. so we need to get some leadership going right now, i expect this is just a temporary pause until the next few days. tomorrow will be a big spanish meeting, the entire cabinet of spain's government will be meeting and we'll get hints about if they will seek
assistance from the european union. >> we didn't get any leadership from spain either today. thank you, bob. today on cnbc, we've been looking at investing in different places around the globe. what if i were to tell you one of the hottest markets this year has been turkey? the etf that tracks the turkish market is up 35% today. the symbol on that is tur. let's talk turkey today. mark newton, and on the fundamental side is joiyce chan. what's working for turkey these days? >> turkey had a couple upside surprises over the last month. the credit rating was upgraded last month and is still on positive outlook. many investors think this could be the next investment grade
rating -- also, the growth is up to 2.8%, and turkey at 4.5% growth next year. turkey has been very successful at tie verse fieing it's exports. so good news to report in turkey. >> very good. >> all right, what does the clark look like? i don't know how liquid this etf is. >> yes, turkey is still short-term bullish. it's been up about 35%. so there's still a good likelihood of this moving up. . >> this is a knew high we have seen since july of 2010. now we're up from these lows. the fact that we have been able to get up this spring is something that greeted a lot of short-term momentum.
here we see a relative chart of the turkey dty, and it's pressed up and turkey is taking out that high. in general, i view turkey as a good police to invest still. it shows that technically they can move higher. >> yes, i i it can move to 59 in the short run by the end of the year and intermediate targets are near seven. >> so, joyce, how reliable is the turkish economy? >> turkey's banks are well capitalized and they have not had difficulty financing themes. they've grown market share outside of the euro zone particularly in the middle east. they have shown the ability to diversify and weather this funding crisis. >> joyce, mark, good to see you.
thank you for talking turkey with us today. there's a lot of great new stories about making money internationally. visit investingin .cnbc.com. >> this market has worsened just a bit. the dow jones down about 120 points right here. when we come back, the politics of pot. >> this is dynamite hash. it's a little harsh. >> the push to legalize marion will be on the ballot this fall. and speaking of taxes, somebody here says you're not paying enough of them? are we undertaxed? tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm so into it,
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the nasdaq weaker by half a percent and the s&p and russell down today on expectation of further fed stimulus in september now coming into question after good data in the last month. >> a turn around for oil prices sharply lower on the close after shutting a three month high on the day. sharon epperson will sort it out for us. >> dashing those hopes had an impact on financial market stocks as well as oin and other commodities off of their highs as well. the prices we're seeing here gaining $10 in just the month of august alone. we were do for profit taking traders say, so the fact that we're down a dollar is really not that much. it was a oversold overbought condition i should say in terms of the technical analysis, and that is part of the reason we saw the sell off in the marketplace as oil was unable to hold under the 200 moving day
average. brent crude olding to, we'll see if wti can regain. >> okay, a question everybody is asking, are you undertaxed. anyone feel you're undertaxed right now? >> when you consider federal, state, property, and income taxes we pay, does anyone feel undertaxed? the u.s. pays about half of what denmark pays. >> should americans be paying more in taxes? >> gentleman, good to see you both, are we getting our money's worth. denmark has a much different economic and government. >> it's not a question if we're taxed relative to denmark, it's
relative to what we're spending. the federal government will take in $2 pnts.4 trillion this year. all of the plans out there, the obama plan calls for it to be about 19. the ryan plan calls for about 18%. that difference is a few hundred billion dollars. individually we all feel overtaxed, but collectively we're clearly undertaxed because we're not generating nearly close to the revenues. >> you didn't include property tax, sales tax. >> the big problem we have at the federal level is we have these massive debts, a prospect of cutting $100 billion in spending -- >> let me explain the math a little bit.
there's no way we can tax enough to pay for the way spending is going to go because of entitlements, we need to reform entitlements and get that spending down. here is what we need, fix entitlements and get that spending down. go to progrowth tax reform to increase revenue, and then only then see what that gap is, and then you would raise taxes. instead we're talking about raising taxes first and not last. >> it's a question of how you raise the taxes, right? >> dan, i just want to go through -- >> dan, excuse me. >> i want to go through where the taxes is happening, if you live in new york and you make more than $200,000, you're paying 50% of your income to the government. what's the right number in your view? >> i informs new york for years and connecticut, and i think the number is less than 50%.
>> we just did the numbers. >> the people paying 50% -- it's the corporations paying 13%. maybe they should pay 20%. >> when you add up the numbers, you're at 50%. so what should the number be in your view. is it 60%? how much do you think should should go to the government? >> for someone in the highest bract, 35 at the marginal rate. that's what we have now. we have a system that inabcrediy inefficient. >> america is competitive advantage -- >> guys, this points to -- >> jimmy, this only points to how complicated our tax situation is in this country.
e there are too many kinds of taxes we're paying and we're not getting our moneys worth. >> we're not, and there's no effort to streamline, fix entitlements and then see what we need for taxes. we can't bother trying to reform medicare or government -- >> who has the political will to do that, though? who has the will to touch the entitlement programs in this country. >> we will one way or the other. there's no way we can tax enough to cover that gap. >> it's amazing to me that we keep talking about tax reform. what's holding you back, on both sides of the aisle we have to see tax reform -- >> people talk about getting rid of the mortgage interest deduction or interest bonds,
lobbyist supporting them are very powerful. people talk about tax simplification. lower rates, get rid of the loopholes, no one will say what loopholes we're getting rid of. >> great conversation. >> i thought we were going to solve it and we didn't do that. don't ferorget larry kudlow's interview with vice presidential cane date paul ryan. >> market is down about 1150 points. >> back to the lows, the doucet a close lower for the fourth straight day now. we have top strategist to fwhag on that coming up. >> he says there's an 80% chance that the government will stimulate the economy. there's big news.
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deutsche bank say there's is a new start up search engine that is stealing market share. we have drag because of the hp effect today. hp east forecast. we have a dozen -- two dozen, in fact, at about a 20-year high after better than expected earnings. back to you guys. >> spices are hot right now. >> thank you, bertha, the dow seeing this triple digit decline in the stretch, but the latest survey saying bullish sentiment has broken above average and is at a four-month high. >> yes, it seems to be trumping that survey today.
we have joe quinlin and bob pisani. do you want to be putting new money to work here or are you waiting it out? >> i'm still worried at europe in particular. the numbers in china are getting softer and softer. here in the united states i feel a little better. >> what are you watching right now? >> i think cyclicals have outperformed. in my view, that is a head fake. europe is clearly in a recession. china is trying to engineer a landing, and i would be careful chasing the rally that we have seen because the fed might ease once again. it won't have that big of a
marginal impact on economic growth. >> does that dictate your investing? >> it's hard to ignore it for a lot of our clients who are hedge funds, it has to be part of the occasion. by the same stoken, if you're a longer term investor, you reached a national rimt of you can expect them to do for you. >> we have been getting mixed signals today if the fed will east or not in here. >> i think the problem the market has right now is it's gone as far as it possibly can go. with policies from the ecb, from the federal reserve, or from indication. they may or may not have asked for assistance. and the market just seems to be stalled out here as i have been saying all day, there's no real leadership anywhere.
>> are we making too much? the nasdaq is still above 14-whatever right now. we're not in bad shape. >> draghi said whatever it takes and we added $3 trillion on since then alone. now it's going to be a show me market. we can handle these gains. i think we just need a little traction. >> and the show me part is show me from the federal reserve. so do you think we'll get a market sell off? >> i think they're looking for washington. whatever the legislatures are doing about the fiscal problems. that's the bigger issue. if we get movement there we'll see a nice rally. >> we'll have to wait on that one. >> how do you make money then? >> i think if you have a longer term, dividends will be the way to go. given the size of our fiscal
problems, you will probably get negative interest rates for treasuries. you'll not make much money there, and cisco was one of the most exciting stories in the last few weeks. >> and they raise it 75%. >> they indicated that yield was well above three and a lot of companies have extra kags. and that's exciting for me for a chance in the market. >> it certainly doesn't help. half of the market's participants are nontax able. it would not change that much for them. clearly at the margin for the company considering, especially a technology company, if that changes they're going to look to do share purchases or other ways to return cash to shareholders. >> gentleman, thank you for your thoughts.
take a look at shears of saleforce.com. they were set to report afterle bell today. we're seeing a downward trend. they're expecting 39 cents a share. bill, over to you. thank you very much, 15 minutes left, holding steady with the dow down here 140 points. >> is this a new game change that facebook needs? >> hispanics in the election, could they be the swing vote? we're going to have the brian williams of telemundo. >> and hewlett-packard leading the dow lower today. 8% lower, but you have known this was coming if you watched
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welcome back, mobility is facebook's biggest challenge, and they have a new apple app. the apples are much faster which should help them serve more ads. mobile users are growing faster than mobile revenue. the team completely rewrote the app from the ground up focussing on speed. it's a big step forward. the new apps are tailored to the way they use iphones and ipads, with one hand. facebook can quickly roll out updates. >> this is a big leap for us.
one, we're launching a really fast application, but two, it allows us to build much more quickly on top of this. it allows us to get a lot mf really awesome experiences to to people much more quickly. >> they refused to answer questions about ads or revenue, and no one would talk about the stock price. they all focused on the message that facebook is drilling down and focussing on mobile. android is probably going to have to have a new app as well. >> thanks, julia. >> they got the message after the ipo that mobile is the way to go. hewlett-packard has been the dow's biggest loser today. >> bill, this would come as no surprise if you were watching cnbc and this program in
particular this month. jim channels called hp the ultimate value trap. he said the way to make money was a short this stock. listen to this. >> how low can hp go do you think? what kind of a move are you expecting? >> we'll wait and see, if they're burning the amount of cash as i think, they're in declining business. >> the other day we heard that dic changed their growth target for pc growth in the united states from 5% growth to 1% growth, you add that to the fact that hp has been flailing about anyway. as jim points out, it's in a declining industry, this stock price is probably justified then. >> and the stat i bring up is
there are 5 billion mobile phones on the plannest today. look at that and compare that to 1 billion pakistcs, you see whee growth is. that's why apple has been such a winner. when you have that number of phones in the world today, and such population growth, you can really see where it's coming from. >> happening very, very quickly. >> a short break and then the closing count down. >> this is grass. >> you mean marion? >> yeah. >> yeah, we're pulling out all of the hits today. somebody here says that legalizing marion will save billions in taxpayer dollars and great a new source of government revenue. road trip buddy. let's put some music on. [ woman ] welcome to learning spanish in the car.
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this market saw safe havens grow today. the one that didn't grow was the dollar. the euro still at a seven week high against the dollar today. usually when the euro goes higher, our stock market goes higher. so look at the dow. did the stock market follow the euro? no. the outliar would be the dollar. for example, oil, wti and crude, lower today. what did go higher today? the ten year, the yield back down again. just last week we were at 186 on the tenure and now down to 167. a huge decline in yields there. here is the one getting my attention now. gold up to after it broke resistance. we're at 1672 and change right
now. so safe haven plays are -- >> the market is overbrought in the last several weeks. we have questioning of the fed providing stimulus next month. on the other hand. there has been criticizing offal fed action, particularly from fed officials today. >> i guess mitt romney is saying he would not reappoint ben bernanke and he's not in favor of qe 3. >> partly because romney and paul ryan want to do their own tax reform lowering the rate but broadening the base and other things we have not seen. it's been all on the fed. >> i will let you get ready for that. bill gross right at the top of the hour. >> yesterday he tweeted throughout is an 80% chance that we'll get the stimulus and i
want to see if that position changed. >> matt, where is the leadership in this market right now? did energy move lower? financials were not part of the leadership, where are we right now. >> it's funny, yesterday they were looking for a stock market retracement. one thing where you did look at gold, being up 30 points, maybe that's a safe haven. they're putting their money in gold and gold ek fquities right now. i don't think there's any time for that yet. the other thing that is interesting is the governments have gotten involvemented in greece and europe and our government and now the market starts to come in for a little bit. >> the strength from the euro today, the one outliar, they
will ask the ecb for stimulus of some kind and we will see mending. are we grasping at straws or what do you think? >> we can't go through another weekend to see what we do in europe. it's not the end of the world by in means. it's not that unfounded. >> and it is a thursday afternoon in the summer time in august as well too. >> yes, i think serve at barclays. it would be nice to have a little certainty into the weekend so we don't have to worry about it all weekend while we're sitting on the beach. >> we'll finish up this finish hour of the "closing bell." the lows of the sessions for the major averages with the dow down 116 points. bill gross and more